Helios Towers – Entry into the South African Market

Helios Towers (HT) was founded in 2009 and concluded its first tower sales and lease back deal (S&LB) deal with Millicom in Ghana. Subsequently, HT has undertaken similar deals in Congo Brazzaville, DRC, and Tanzania. In 2018, Helios Towers entered the South African market.

Strategy

HT’s principal business lies in building, acquiring and operating telecommunications towers that are capable of accommodating and powering the needs of multiple tenants. These tenants are typically large MNOs and other telecommunications providers who in turn provide wireless voice and data services, primarily to end-consumers and businesses.

HT uses the sales and lease back method of buying towers from mobile network operators.

KPIs

By end 2018:

  • HT had acquired 82% and had built 18% of its total tower stock (total towers 6 745) since commencing operations in Africa. 
  • In 2018, there were 13 549 tenants that yielded an average tenancy across its towers of 2.01x.
  • In 2018, HT earned an average of USD4 435 per month per tower, or USD2 208 per customer per tower per month.

South Africa

In 2018 HT entered into a partnership with Vulatel (Pty) Ltd and formed Helios Towers SA (HTSA) with HT owning 66% and Vulatal 34%. Vulatel has been in operation since 2017. The company acquired Dimension Data’s fibre and wireless division (formerly Plessey South Africa).

Subsequently, Vulatel acquired Gio Construction, a provider of network deployment and maintenance services.

Contact Andre Wills by e-mail to discuss the profile or answer any queries you may have.

2019 East Africa Com

The East Africa Com conference took place in Nairobi, Kenya during the days 14 and 15 May 2019. The overarching theme of the conference was new technologies enabling the emerging digital world and digital transformation. The specific focus of the conference was also on how these developments will unfold in East Africa and the impact they are likely to have across economic, social and government environments in the region.

The eco-system was well-represented at the conference, with organisations from the ICT industry, financial institutions, parastatal utilities, government entities and academia inter alia. Theoretical discussions were supported by ample examples of current uses cases for new technologies in East Africa.

The topics at the conference dealt with a wide range of subjects, tackling issues such as:

  • Quality broadband connectivity and “affordable” access to ensure maximum socio-economic inclusivity in Africa (this continues to be a pertinent topic despite years of private sector and government initiatives);
  • Adoption and application of new technologies (such as Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning) in various vertical industries and government agencies to deliver new and improved services to customers;
  • Democratisation of data to make it more readily available for analysis to solve socio-economic problems through development of correct policies, yet remaining mindful of the requirement for data anonymity;
  • Digital transformation among organisations in East Africa to become more efficient and globally competitive, and positioning for the 4th Industrial Revolution;
  • Mobile money and financial inclusion; and
  • Growing women leaders in ICT and business in general.

On the last point, the East Africa Com conference has developed a partnership with ITC SheTrades, an initiative of the International Trade Centre, a joint agency of the World Trade Organisation and the United Nations. The SheTrades initiative aims to connect three million women to market by 2021, facilitating opportunities for women entrepreneurs, supported by a web and mobile digital platform. At the conference, the emphasis was placed on bringing women into the tech sector and using technology to enable women to participate in economic activities to a greater extent. This would unlock a lot of additional value and grow the global economy, especially in developing markets.

Connecting ICT stakeholders

The AHUB again proved to be a very useful medium of connecting local technology start-ups with investors, operators and large corporates to foment collaboration on new projects and (hopefully) mutually beneficial partnerships. The discussion panel on “Realising synergies between MNOs and African tech start-ups” illustrated initiatives already in place aimed at creating an environment conducive to start-up development and success, although still only 1 in 10 start-ups achieve some form of success (including survival beyond the short term). Revenue splits from commercial products (such as apps) continue to be skewed in favour of large mobile operators who claim they provider greater inputs into the partnership. This can stymie the growth of start-ups into sustainable companies.

Building a successful digital economy

To build a successful digital economy in East Africa a number of more basic building blocks still need to be put in place. For instance, liberalisation of immigration laws to attract foreign skills and direct investment, or creation of incentive schemes to experiment with new technologies through pilots (“sand boxes”) free from bureaucratic constraints. Availability of requisite spectrum for new access technologies (such as 5G) timeously is also critical.

Regulating new technology

One of the recurring discussion points at the conference revolved around regulating the new technologies and services in the digital world. One first needs to understand what it is that one tries to regulate, which is what the governments and regulatory authorities in many markets are currently trying to achieve. Unfortunately, the consensus was that we are likely to see more rather than less regulation, which is also bound to become more complex with increasing complexity of the digital environment around us. This is at a time when most stakeholders hope to see less, not more, regulation to allow for freer development of the digital future. It is critical for governments and regulatory authorities to embrace new technologies, rather than stifle them with over-regulation, lest we miss out on opportunities the new technologies offer.

4th Industrial Revolution

In a sense, Africa is already well suited to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Out of necessity, and limited formal jobs, the gig economy is alive and well. New technologies such as AI, ML and mixed reality innovation will drive these opportunities and create more formal job. An example is the recent launch of the Africa Development Centre by Microsoft in Nairobi, Kenya and Lago, Nigeria which will bring USD100 million of investment and 500 engineering jobs over the next five years. Africa can take advantage of its young population to drive this growth but it first needs to create capacity.

This report was compiled by Dobek Pater who attended and participated in the 2019  East Africa Com.

FTTH and FTTB in Africa

Fibre broadband connectivity has been much talked about in many markets in Africa over the past few years. It is touted as required infrastructure for the next generation of services both in the business and residential markets – from operating out of the cloud by small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) to eGovernment services to future household entertainment (streaming content).

Factors limiting fibre growth

Yet, with the exception of a few countries, the growth of fibre access networks has been very limited in across most of the African continent. This can be ascribed to a number of factors, including:

  • Cost of fibre infrastructure deployment – This remains quite high in many markets and makes for a difficult business case, given the service adoption rates (although aerial fibre deployment is less expensive). It is less expensive to build wireless networks.
  • Cost of infrastructure maintenance – Once a fibre network has been built, the cost of maintenance and repairs can also be quite high if the fibre cable keeps being damaged due to other infrastructure development in the same area.
  • Small target market – Socio-economic development is often still slow, with slow middle class growth, and correspondingly low affordability levels. This is coupled with comparatively high prices of fibre connectivity, paying a premium for a superior service. In the business market, and in particular small businesses, the level of maturity (and often also affordability) limits the adoption of fibre broadband.

Fibre Access Infrastructure Market

The fibre access infrastructure provider environment tends to be quite fragmented in many markets, with a number of smaller fibre network operators (FNOs) operational. It is difficult for small operators to maintain a sustainable operation with a small footprint. Hence, in most markets in Africa, operators follow a multi-technology strategy, where possible, for the provision of connectivity services. Fibre is one of the technologies used but most of the connections may be provided wirelessly. Only in a limited number of cases have we seen the evolution of a pure fibre access infrastructure provider. This is most pronounced in South Africa, where around 50 FNOs are operational. Many of them very small and unsustainable. This leads to growing consolidation in this market.

As at mid-2018, there were 136 commercial FTTH / FTTB networks operational in Africa in 40 countries (including territories) and another ten networks either planned or in deployment. The presence of fibre broadband infrastructure on the African continent and growth over the past few years are presented below. The year-on-year growth of connected premises from mid-2017 to mid-2018 was 75%.

Concentrated Market

Fibre broadband uptake is concentrated in a handful of country markets, with almost 97% of total fibre connections on the continent (top five account for 85% of total). Even at that, household penetration is very low in these countries. The notable exceptions are Mauritius (where fibre deployment is being pursued as a national strategy) and La Réunion – both small islands with small populations in the Indian Ocean. This concentration of fibre broadband in several market on the continent is illustrated in the following graphic.

Some of the key market trends observed in the fibre broadband market are:

  • Access infrastructure has been expanding and improving, underpinned by improving national long-haul and metro backhaul infrastructure.
  • Pricing of fibre-based products has seen some reduction, making the products more affordable. This is combined with increasing disposable income levels (at least in growing economies).
  • Economic improvements (not in all markets) have led to improved business climate and demand for fibre-based services.
  • Government policy direction moving towards national fibre roll-out, digital agenda, etc.
  • Access to relevant content has been improving.

Market Opportunities

The present FTTH / FTTB market landscape in Africa provides for a number of opportunities going forward. These include:

  • Lack of legacy fixed infrastructure in many markets presents an opportunity to address this shortage with fibre. However, this can also be a challenge due to, for instance, lack of duct infrastructure which could be reused to lower the cost of deployment or lack of fixed line product / service culture and understanding of such products / services within the target user base.
  • Middle class migration to gated communities / complexes and increasing concentration of businesses in office parks means that the potential users can be reached more easily at a lower cost. New residential and business developments also provide an opportunity for greenfields fibre infrastructure deployment in such premises.
  • Once the first wave of FTTH deployment and uptake is past its peak (this may take a number of years in most markets in Africa), the cost of deployment and provision of services may be suitable for a second wave to address the lower socio-economic segments.
  • The fragmented fibre infrastructure provider environment presents M&A opportunities for (typically) larger operators or non-telecoms investors.
    Future evolution of the FTTH / FTTB markets in Africa will be driven by a combination of socio-economic development and government policies.

Market Outlook

However, given the diversity of markets in Africa in terms of ICT and socio-economic development, the pace of fibre broadband deployment and adoption will also differ significantly from country to country over the next five years. The expected market evolution trends are highlighted below.

Home Market

  • Greater focus on back selling of fibre services to achieve higher connectivity rate of homes passed.
  • Geographic expansion of the FTTH footprint (although limited to main cities in most countries).
  • Introduction of new products (including smaller bundled offers) to address households with lower disposable income levels (than the top end).
  • Introduction of converged products combining fixed and mobile services.
  • Increase in relevant content (requiring fast and reliable internet access) will drive uptake.
  • Continued downward trend in retail prices of fibre products, resulting in greater affordability.

Business Market

  • Geographic expansion of the FTTB footprint (although limited to main cities).
  • Introduction of converged products combining fixed and mobile services.
  • Move towards IoT (and IoE) over time, requiring greater good quality connectivity.
  • Government policy direction aimed at expansion of broadband (including fibre) infrastructure and services to drive socio-economic development.
  • Growth in maturity of the business community, realising the benefits of IP and cloud services. Fibre will be used for delivery of these services.

Microsoft Launches its Cloud Data Centres in South Africa

Microsoft launches two data centres located in Cape Town and Johannesburg.

The South African cloud data centre market has started gaining traction as demonstrated by the recent launch by Microsoft South Africa of two regional cloud data centres in Johannesburg and Cape Town. Companies have started realising the benefits of cloud adoption, which include reduced costs of managing and maintaitng IT systems as well as the scalability and agility of cloud services. Furthermore, various sporting bodies have also started adopting cloud services, notably the South Africa Rugby Union (SARU), to monitor and improve player performance. This is a demonstration that cloud solutions will not only have an impact in the work space, but across various sporting disciplines as well.

Market Overview

On 6 March 2019, Microsoft SA announced the official launch of its two regional Azure cloud data centres, located in Johannesburg and Cape Town. It is one of the first global cloud data centre providers to provide cloud services on the African continent. 

The newly appointed MD for Microsoft SA, Lillian Barnard, highlighted that these enterprise-grade data centres will support cloud, artificial intelligence and edge computing innovations across the continent. Further, key sectors of the economy that the company is looking at supporting through its cloud data centre infrastructure, include agriculture, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, mining and the public sector. 

Microsoft’s cloud data centres are expected to enable skills development through the creation of a Cloud Centre of Excellence (CCoE) by companies migrating towards the cloud. The CCoE is a cross-functional team of executive support that leads other employees through cloud adoption, migration and operation. In addition, after cloud migration, employees will be required to upscale their skills to align them with the new cloud services.

Key Drivers and Inhibitors of Cloud Adoption in South Africa

Various drivers and inhibitors are currently influencing the uptake of cloud services in SA. Microsoft highlighted that some of the key drivers to cloud adoption include digital transformation and increased innovation by businesses.

The key drivers and inhibitors to the adoption of cloud services in SA are provided below.

Drivers

  • Reduced costs of managing and maintaining IT systems, i.e., lower total cost of ownership (TCO).
  • Scalability and agility of cloud services.
  • Business continuity in cases of natural disasters, power failures or infrastructure breakdown.
  • The need to develop local skills and transform existing capabilities, in accordance with emerging global trends.
  • Ubiquity of broadband connectivity and the availability of faster connectivity at lower prices.
  • Cost savings through the reduced costs of updating or replacing legacy software.
  • Mobility and the ability of employees to work remotely.
  • Business innovations that require new digital capabilities
  • Increased collaboration and efficiency through the cloud.

Inhibitors

  • Limited skills across most local organisations.
  • Data residency requirements within some organisations, particularly those that handle certain forms of personal information e.g., financial institutions, is limiting the uptake of cloud services.
  • Discomfort with the adoption of new technologies by end-users.
  • Concerns around potential security issues related to personal and company information being managed by a third party.
  • Latency associated with connectivity to data centres offshore and relatively slow connectivity speeds. (These constraints are being alleviated.)
  • Perception by smaller organisations that cloud services are meant for large corporates.

Microsoft’s Customer Experiences for Data Centre Migration

Microsoft SA highlighted various customer experiences influencing the current Azure cloud migration by businesses. These are:

  • Expiry of existing data centre contracts
  • End of support for existing software
  • Quickly integrating new IT infrastructure acquisitions
  • Software and hardware refreshment and upgrade
  • Urgent capacity upgrading
  • Cost optimisation
  • Business innovations requiring new digital capabilities
  • Unsupported legacy IT infrastructure
  • Security protection of business assets and customer data
  • Increased focus on core business operations

These drivers of cloud migration by Microsoft’s customers are closely related to the digital transformation currently being undertaken by these businesses in SA.

Key Vertical Sectors

While the cloud market in SA is currently in the growth stage, some verticals have emerged as early adopters of cloud solutions.
The public sector is a key sector demonstrating the biggest potential for cloud adoption in SA. This has been mainly due to the limited IT skills within most government departments. As such, most public entities are looking at outsourcing their IT infrastructure through cloud services.

Early adopters:

  • Banking/financial sector
  • Healthcare
  • Manufacturing
  • Mining
  • Public sector

Microsoft’s Partnership with the South African Rugby Union (SARU)

In February 2019, Microsoft SA formed a cloud partnership with the SARU. This partnership is aimed at transforming SA’s rugby through the use of cloud capabilities to unlock new opportunities.

To develop its new platform, SARU partnered with Accenture and incorporated various technologies.

Technology used by SARU uses GPS to track player performance during a match. This technology compiles performance statistics such as the number of shots and tackles achieved, as well as the distance covered during a match. Subsequently, SARU uses software, provided by Microsoft, to analyse player performance to identify areas of improvement.

This analysis helps SARU prepare for upcoming matches and helps identify weaknesses in the opposition players, allowing for development of strategies to improve their performance on the field.

Microsoft’s Partnership with Team Dimension Data

Since 2014, Microsoft has partnered with the professional cycling team Team Dimension Data for Qhubeka in the Tour de France, using the Office365 package as the collaboration platform for the cycling team.

This platform is used to manage its global team through a central repository to communicate, collaborate, share information and manage the team’s operations.

In addition, the Office365 package enables the team members to communicate with each other via Skype during racing events, as well as maintain communication with the administration bodies.

Further, they are also able to access emails with event updates and time changes, which is aligned to their events calendar. The OneDrive application allows them to save data and information which they can share with other team members.

Microsoft’s Partnership Network

Microsoft SA leverages a broad network of partners located both locally and internationally. This network is characterised by a vast network of independent software vendors (ISVs) and systems integrators (SIs).

In 2018, Microsoft SA had 6 000 registered partners, of which 1 200 were registered during the same year. Furthermore, 470 partners were classified as either gold or silver partners. The number of partners that attained gold or silver partner status increased by 31% in 2018.

During the same year, the number of data centre migration certified partners amounted to 24. These are the partners tasked with modernising and migrating Microsoft’s customers from the traditional legacy infrastructure to the modern Azure cloud infrastructure.

As such, partnerships have been key to Microsoft’s operations in ensuring smooth migration to the latest Azure cloud infrastructure.

Typical Cost-Savings through Azure Cloud Adoption

According to Microsoft, the adoption of Azure cloud has resulted in tangible benefits for businesses, with most companies reporting various cost savings from the migration to the cloud services.

Some of the benefits that could be realised through the adoption of the Azure cloud services include:

  • 15% reduction in total cost of ownership (TCO): the migration to cloud services could result in a 15% reduction in the total direct and indirect costs of acquiring and operating IT infrastructure by organisations.
  • 25% cost-reduction from reserved instances: Reserved instances (RIs) are reservations in resources and capacity within a particular region for future usage. RIs are generally cheaper than on-demand purchases, therefore resulting in significant cost savings.
  • 25% cost-reduction from exact IT requirements: By purchasing the exact IT infrastructure and avoiding excess capacity, some organisations have been able to achieve up to 25% cost savings on IT infrastructure.

Summary

During the recent launch of Microsoft’s Azure cloud data centres, key drivers were highlighted that influence cloud migration. Most businesses have started realising the cost benefits that result from cloud adoption, which include approximately 15% reduction in TCO and 25% cost reduction from reserved instances.

However, inhibitors remain in the market. These include limited skills availability across most organisations and data residency requirements in some sectors, such as the financial services and public sectors. Nonetheless, the landscape is shifting as more organisations in both government and financial services start embracing cloud data centre migration in accordance with their digital transformation initiatives.

Central to Microsoft’s cloud data centre migration has been the formation of partnerships with various players, including independent software vendors (ISVs) and systems integrators (SI). In 2018, Microsoft SA had approximately 6 000 registered partners, of which 470 were classified as either gold or silver partners. Twenty-four of these companies are data migration certified partners, who will play a critical role in migrating customers to the Azure cloud infrastructure.

Various sporting disciplines have partnered with Microsoft, including SARU and the Team Dimension Data for Qhubeka, allowing them to enhance their performance and achieve more efficient information sharing.

This is a demonstration that Microsoft’s cloud solutions will not only be critical in the work space, but also provides vital services to sporting disciplines.

More Information

Please contact Derrick Chikanga (derrick@africaanalysis.co.za) for further information about the data centre and cloud markets.

2018 Broadband Trends in Africa

Broadband is being increasingly considered as a necessity for future socio-economic development, with some parties viewing it as a basic human right. Essentially, without broadband connectivity, the digital divide in the social and business spheres (between businesses / households / individuals who have access to broadband vs. those that do not) will continue to widen to the point where the have nots will be left out of mainstream development altogether.

This presents a significant problem in many countries in Africa which have limited financial resources for telecommunications infrastructure builds on the one hand and continue to experience relatively low levels of socio-economic development on the other hand. Private sector telecoms infrastructure operators tend to build where they can generate a reasonable return on their investment (ROI) while large segments of the population and many small / micro businesses struggle cannot afford proper broadband connectivity or sufficient quantity of broadband services.

Implementation of Polices and Programmes

To remedy this situation, a number of national governments have been developing and implementing policies and programmes to build out broadband infrastructure as widely as possible and to decrease the prices of broadband services to a point where ultimately can afford them in sufficient quantity. To achieve this, they need to involve private sector operators while remaining mindful of the fact that private entities need to remain profitable to maintain sustainable operations.

While most countries in Africa now have access to good quality and adequate bandwidth on international, national long-haul and metro infrastructure (albeit in some markets still expensive), the constraint is now focused on broadband access infrastructure. In some regions of the continent inland backbone networks also need to be improved, although a number of projects are underway to address this.

Although broadband penetration has shown steady growth over the past several years, penetration levels of fixed broadband remain very low at approximately 7% of households on the continent, while mobile broadband has demonstrated a notable decline in growth and plateauing of the penetration rate. These trends are illustrated below.

Note: For the purposes of this analysis mobile 3G is considered a broadband service, although in many instances speeds achieved on a 3G connection would not be reflective of a good quality broadband service.

The Challenge

The challenge to higher fixed broadband penetration is the speed of deployment of fixed broadband infrastructure, to a large degree dictated by sales opportunities. A barrier to entry into the mobile broadband market is often still the price of a 3G or 4G phone. Mobile operators typically pursue a strategy of making lower cost handsets available as much as possible to lower this barrier.

Additionally, mobile broadband coverage (even 3G) is still not available across parts of the continent, particularly in rural / remote areas. Build-out of 4G infrastructure in sub-1GHz spectrum holds promise of providing coverage in such areas but in many markets 4G is still at an early stage of deployment, focusing on the larger urban environment.

Broadband Access Technologies

A range of broadband access technologies is used by operators in Africa to provide services, although the vast majority of connections is wireless and most of the connections are mobile.

The map provides an indication of key broadband technologies deployed. Most of the markets have seen implementation of multiple technologies, with various fixed wireless access (FWA) present in all markets. However, the geographic footprint of these technologies, in particular fixed technologies, remains very limited in most of the markets.

The mix of technologies used for the delivery of broadband services is changing. Older FWA technologies such as pre-WiMAX and WiMAX are being replaced with fixed LTE / LTE-A, while historical copper lines (where they exist) are gradually giving way to fibre (FTTH and FTTB), although on a very limited scale at present, with the exception of a few countries.

In the mobile space, the focus will be on 4G infrastructure footprint build-out far more extensive than currently, with 5G hovering on the distant horizon.

Only South Africa has begun to pilot 5G technology, with first commercial services expected to be offered in the second half of 2019. However, wider 5G implementation is also a couple / few years away in that market.

Broadband Adoption will grow

As the use cases for true broadband connectivity grow, so will adoption of broadband across the consumer and business markets in Africa. This will be aided by decreasing prices of broadband connectivity (in time, all of the connectivity will become commoditised) and government-led initiatives aimed at wider broadband availability.

Broader socio-economic development, supported by good GDP growth in many countries in Africa, will also contribute to making broadband services more affordable and increasingly indispensable to sustain this development.
The opportunity for expansion of broadband penetration is there, as evidenced, for instance by the total mobile penetration rate (80% in mid-2018 for Africa) vs. mobile broadband penetration of 53% at the same time.

There is room for growth

Fixed broadband adoption will need to compete with mobile broadband, certainly in the consumer / residential market and in the micro / small company market.

However, certain drivers such as migration to cloud services and accessing online content in large quantities will create a demand for fixed broadband services.

It would also be sensible for operators in Africa to consider moving to a more open access network environment in the fixed wireline space, where wholesale infrastructure operators would host a number of retail service providers on their networks to stimulate service-based competition.

Rain Mobile Unveils SIM-only Data Plans

Rain Mobile launched commercial operations on 6 June 2018, after completing its Beta Programme (internal network trial).  They unveiled their initial data-centric offering, with the aim to compete aggressively against the existing four mobile operators.  At a launch price of R50 per GB, Rain Mobile is substantially cheaper than any competing offers from mobile operators. […]

The Rise of the New IT Service Provider Superstar

AYO Technology published pre-listing plans which show that it has strong ambitions to grow its revenue from R479 million to R7.7 billion over two years. The strategy it plans to adopt consists of a strong M&A element, combined with a novel approach to team up with a global IT Service Provider.

BT SA Alliance

AYO Technology has entered into a strategic agreement with BT SA.  This will see some of BT SA’s major clients transferred from BT SA to AYO Technology.

As a result of the addition of products and services from BT SA to their current portfolio, AYO believes that it can win more business from BT SA’s clients, while also tapping into the broader market.  Should this alliance be successful, then AYO Technology will have demonstrated a new strategy of how to partner with global IT Services Providers to the benefit of both parties.

Who is AYO Technology?

They are a B-BBEE ICT Group, offering numerous end-to-end solutions to a range of industries.

The Group was established in 1996 and has evolved over time through continually adapting to the local and international ICT landscape. The process of adaptation was enabled by acquiring new businesses, partnerships and sourcing innovative technology within its existing portfolio.

AYO Technology, through its divisions, subsidiaries and partners, provides solutions to both the public and private sector within South Africa and abroad. Its private sector client base comprises mostly of blue-chip multi-nationals.

The Group maintains strong relationships and holds key value added reseller or supplier agreements with principles such as Nokia Siemens Networks South Africa (Pty) Ltd (“Nokia Siemens”), Cisco Systems, IBM, InterSystems Corporation, Microsoft Corporation and Riverbed Technology Inc, which provides the group with continuous access to up-to-date technology.

AYO Technology Revenue Ambition

They plan to grow their revenue from R479 million (Aug 2017) to R4.4 billion (Aug 2018) and to R7.7 billion (Aug 2019).

They plan to do this through:

  • A strategy that consists of M&A;
  • Transferring revenue from BT SA to AYO Technology; and
  • Winning more business from existing BT SA customers.

AYO Technology believes that its empowerment credentials will be a significant competitive advantage that will enable it to win new business in the SA market.

AYO Technology Revenue May 2018

The chart shows the dramatic rise in revenue forecast by AYO Technology for 2018 and 2019.

What is AYO Technology’s Revenue Strategy?

Two pillars underpin AYO Technology’s strategy:

Key to AYO’s strategy is the strategic agreement it concluded with BT SA in December 2017.  This will see BT SA transfer various clients from its operations to AYO Technology. AYO Technology will earn 21% and 18% of its 2018 and 2019 revenue transferred from BT SA to AYO Technology.

In addition, AYO Technology believes that it can grow the services purchased from their existing customers and earn R860 million and R1 325 million additional revenue or 19% and 17% of its 2018 and 2019 revenue.

AYO Technology plans to aggressively engage in M&A acquisitions over 2018 and 2019. They plan to earn R2 billion from new acquisitions in 2018, and R4.4 billion in 2019. These revenue streams represent 47% and 56% of the forecasted 2018 and 2019 revenue. AYO Technology will use part of the capital raised in its listing to fund the acquisition of new ICT companies.

Thus, AYO Technology plans to earn R2.9 billion and R5.7 billion in new revenue from additional revenue earned by using BT customers and through M&A.

The planned AYO Technology revenue growth within the customer base outstrips the revenue growth in the customers ICT budget. AYO Technology acknowledges this and believes that it will win business from other service providers who currently service these customers. They claim that their stronger BBBEE level and the range of products and services, will enable it to achieve its revenue targets.

BT SA Revenue Analysis

The information provided in the AYO Technology Pre-listing document shows that BT earned R1.48 billion in the year ending August 2017.

Analysis of the revenue source shows that BT SA earned 66% of its annual revenue from three customers.

BT SA earned R115 million from the provision of telecommunications services to other telecommunications service providers.

The following chart shows the revenue distribution.

BT SA Revenue May 2018

 

(Before the transfer of clients to AYO Technology)

The AYO Technology transaction valued BT SA at R3.3 billion.

What does this mean for the market?

AYO Technology plans to become one of the top ten IT Service Providers over the next two years. To achieve this, AYO Technolog needs to displace existing IT Service Providers along with winning a larger share of new business arising from market growth.

Should the AYO Technology strategy prove to be successful, then the rest of the IT Services Providers will experience revenue and market share loss.

In response to this new competitive threat, IT Service Providers will need to review their respective empowerment credentials to close the gap between a strongly empowered IT Service Provider, such as AYO Technology, and themselves. This is in addition to assessing how their service profile compares against that of a global IT Service Provider competing in the domestic market.

2017 South African VPN Market Landscape

In the VPN space, the South African market closely follows developments and technological evolution of the more developed telecommunications markets.

The SA market is characterised by escalating bandwidth volumes on the WAN and decreasing prices of products. This is driven by declining bandwidth prices, expansion of broadband infrastructure, and an increased consumption of bandwidth-hungry applications by businesses.

VPN technology mix evolution

VPN customers have been adopting hybrid solutions as they begin consuming many of their services from the cloud. Separate broadband links, rather than the private WAN, are often used for break-out into the internet. The mix of technologies used for WANs will change. MPLS and Internet VPN will show strong decline over the next five years. SD-WAN is expected to show strong growth, coming from migration of existing customers from MPLS and Internet VPN, and new greenfield customers.

The expected lifecycle evolution of these three technologies is presented in the graphic below. MPLS has reached maturity phase. Although widely used among corporates, it is expected to begin declining and see a significant reduction in its use over the next five years. IPSec continues to dominate the Internet VPN space, but it is expected to decline, as is Internet VPN in general, which will be replaced to a large degree by SD-WAN. The latter is currently at an early introduction stage in SA but expected to become mainstream within the next five years.

Source: Africa Analysis, 2017

Source: Africa Analysis, 2017

The MPLS VPN market, continues to be dominated by half-a-dozen service providers. The growth of the SD-WAN market will introduce new players into the VPN market, although the existing market participants will also move into this space. Service providers will either develop their own SD-WAN platforms (IS already launched its platform earlier in 2017) or will partner with global SD-WAN providers to offer their services locally. Some of the service providers will move to integration of all three VPN technologies to provide a hybrid mix to their customers.

VPN market growth

The VPN market is expected to continue growing at a healthy rate in terms of the number of new connections, although it will be impacted to an extent by migration to the cloud. With full migration of applications, storage, etc. into the cloud, there is no need for a company WAN. The total market is forecast to grow from 100 thousand VPN connections in 2016 to reach 276 thousand by 2022, showing a CAGR of 19% for the period 2017 to 2022.

Market growth is illustrated in the following graphic. However, the mix of technologies accounting for the future connections will differ significantly form the current market landscape. They key drivers of SD-WAN uptake are going to include: a) stronger move into the cloud environment, b) drive to reduce company network / WAN costs, and c) requirements for greater network flexibility.

Source: Africa Analysis, 2017

Source: Africa Analysis, 2017

A strong uptake of SD-WAN products is expected in the SME market, but large companies will also replace some of their MPLS links with SD-WAN. However, given their spending power, large companies will continue to account for over two-thirds of WAN revenues.

Ready for the future

To remain competitive in the evolving VPN market, service providers will need to also evolve their technology / product strategy and service approach, including:

  • Have the ability to offer a suite of VPN products for various market segments
  • Develop SD-WAN capabilities
  • Educate customers about new technologies becoming available and their benefits.

More Information

Please contact Dobek Pater (dobek@africaanalysis.co.za) for further information about the SA VPN Report.

3G vs 4G vs 5G – Analysis of Vodacom SA

Summary

Since the deployment of the first 3G base stations, Vodacom has led the market in expanding network coverage. An analysis of the network deployment and uptake of 3G and 4G services, shows the following interesting points:

Reviewing the Technology Investment:

Vodacom has aggressively accelerated the deployment of 4G coverage, reaching 80% population coverage after only 5 years.

By comparison, the 3G network reached 80% population coverage after 8 years.

However, the analysis of 3G and 4G adoption by their customers, shows significantly different technology adoption profiles.  After 5 years, 4G adoption is less than half of the 3G adoption.

What does this mean?

Vodacom has invested strongly in driving 4G coverage.

However, the 4G device adoption has not kept pace with network coverage expansion. The slower adoption has not hindered Vodacom in driving 4G network coverage.

Looking Ahead to 5G

The strategic capability of Vodacom to invest in 5G without a strong link to 5G customer adoption, will underpin and solidify its market leadership position.

Only MTN has the capability to match the above strategy. Cell C and Telkom Group will not be able to match such an investment strategy easily.

Vodacom Strives for Technology Leadership

Vodacom has striven to lead the market when it comes to new technology deployment.

They launched 3G services in December 2004 and 4G services in October 2012. By comparison, MTN SA launched 3G services 6 months later, in June 2005. However, MTN launched 4G services (November 2012) within 1 month of Vodacom announcing their 4G service launch.

3G vs 4G Population Coverage – Vodacom

The following exhibit shows the respective 3G and 4G network population coverage since deployment.

3Gvs4GPopulation

The exhibit shows that Vodacom drove 3G population coverage quite strongly from 2004 to 2012. Interestingly, the sharp rise from 24% to 74% corresponds to the introduction and growth of Dark Fibre Africa (DFA). The launch of DFA was built on the uptake of dark fibre by Vodacom.

Vodacom has aggressively expanded their 4G population coverage, In comparison with the 3G population coverage.

3G vs 4G Population Coverage Comparison – Vodacom

By tracking network deployment in years, from initial service launch, it clearly shows how aggressive 4G deployment was compared to 3G deployment. The following exhibit presents this analysis.

Population Coverage Comparison

There are significant underlying factors that impact the deployment of 3G and 4G networks:

  • Vodacom needed to build out and/or wait for the provisioning of high capacity backhaul to their 3G base stations. Vodacom also needed to adopt a Fibre-to-the-Site (FTTS) backhaul strategy.
    • The advantage of this strategy is that the backhaul was scalable to accommodate the high capacity demand required by the 4G network. Thus, there is a significantly lower waiting time for the provisioning of high capacity 4G base stations.
  • Vodacom re-farms 3G spectrum to offer 4G services. Thus, the underlying infrastructure is in place for the deployment of 4G services.

In support of Vodacom’s 4G network deployment, is the roaming agreement it has entered into with RAIN.

The roaming agreement enables Vodacom to achieve two key network deployment strategies:

  • Capacity (densification): The rollout of 4G coverage by Rain using the Vodacom sites ensures that the Vodacom customers benefit from the network rollout.
  • Coverage: Using the Rain network frees Vodacom to focus on network coverage growth.

3G vs 4G Customer Technology Adoption – Vodacom

The proxy used for technology adoption is the ratio of technology SIMs to total SIM base. The handset base excludes M2M, dongles and tablets.

Device Adoption

By comparison to 3G, the adoption of 4G significant lags the adoption of 3G (device adoption).

This has not hindered Vodacom in driving 4G network coverage.

Quite likely, the 4G national roaming agreement with Rain has enabled Vodacom to focus on driving network coverage rather than focus on both network coverage and network capacity (densification). This behaviour illustrates the strategic value of the roaming agreement.

3G vs 4G Network Coverage Adoption – Vodacom

The following exhibit shows the relationship between network coverage (%population) and the adoption of technology (%SIMS).

Technology Adoption

Based on the exhibit, we can see that Vodacom has strongly driven 4G network coverage with little regard to the adoption of 4G devices. The ability to drive network coverage speaks to the strategic financial capability of Vodacom to invest in their 4G network, without linking this investment to 4G service uptake.

Vodacom has reported that its 3G and 4G customers show significantly different behavior. 4G customers consume more data and represents a higher ARPU customer. Vodacom reports around a 20% uplift in ARPU. Thus, while the 4G adoption has not matched the 3G adoption, the 4G customer has shown to be a more valuable customer (based on ARPU).

What Does this Mean for Vodacom’s 5G Strategy and the Market Competitors?

Based on the 4G behavior, we would expect Vodacom to adopt a similar 5G strategy – that of driving population coverage ahead of 5G service adoption. Vodacom can sustain this strategy while it has the strategic capability to generate cash from its operations to invest in network coverage.

The strategic challenge to the competitors, is that Vodacom can afford an investment strategy that does not directly link to customer adoption. MTN SA may be able to match such a strategy, but it is unlikely that Cell C and Telkom Group would be able to.

The implication of this strategy is that Vodacom can drive 5G network coverage and thus maintain / sustain their technology leadership. This will underpin their market leadership position.